The Supply of Raw Materials
Sustainability of Trees
In today’s world, most trees intended for industrial use are grown in plantations, called managed timberlands in the US. These plantations are sustainably grown and replanted making sure that timber remains a renewable resource. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (2010) “wood availability from New Zealand’s forests is forecast to increase over the next 15 years.” They predict large-scale forests sustaining a total supply of 20 to 22 million cubic metres of wood per year through to 2040 and smaller-scale forests increasing from 4 million in 2015 to 15 million cubic metres per year after 2020.
This means that New Zealand has a reliable supply of trees for now and into the future. As we approach 2070 it is likely that an even greater emphasis will be placed on wood from sustainable tree plantations.
Population Growth in New Zealand:
New Zealand’s total population is increasing, according to Statistics New Zealand (2012) “the median projection is a population of 6 million in 2061, including a net migration gain of 12,000 people per year.” This means new housing needs to be constructed taking up more land to cater for a population increase of around 35% over the current population of 4.471 Million (Google Public Data 2013). However, Statistics New Zealand predicts that by this time population in NZ will have peaked, there is a 1 in 3 chance that deaths will outnumber births before 2070.
The increased demand for housing in the future could mean wood is reallocated to a more profitable sector such as producing timber for construction purposes and not for paper. However according to Sutton (2003) “more than half of the wood used in making pulp comes not from logs but from the chipping residues from the sawmill and the plywood industries.” Therefore the majority of the wood chips used for paper comes from a by-product of creating timber. Logs that are actually chipped for pulping are often small or low quality and can’t be used for timber. This means that the wood supply for the housing industry and the wood supply for the paper industry are not in direct competition with each other. Consequently the production of paper is not in danger from lack of supply of wood.
Land competition from Agriculture and Housing
For paper continue to be to be produced into the future there must be sufficient Land for plantations. Prior to settlement New Zealand was almost entirely forested, now most of the land has been cleared for agricultural purposes and cities. The population increase in NZ by 2070 may mean extra land is required for the construction of cities. The profitability of agriculture such as dairying could rise by 2070 due to extra food demand also requiring extra land. It is likely that the area currently in plantations may be converted back to farmland or developed into cities. This decreases the supply and drives the production costs of paper up, increasing the cost of paper, making it economically viable for the end user to use alternatives to paper thus decreasing demand endangering the paper industry.
However; the Pine which is used in the majority of plantations in New Zealand grows well in infertile or volcanic soil, in harsher climates and in areas of soil erosion (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2008). These are areas are unusable in traditional agriculture due to the inability to support the growth of grass or animals, this means that land is available for many plantations that cannot be effectively used by agriculture. Plantations are more common in hill country, areas unsuitable for dense housing and dairy farming. This means that the supply of land for planting trees will never be completely exhausted.
Conclusion
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The supply of trees in New Zealand is not in danger now or in the future
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Wood supply from small scale plantations are expected to increase through the 2020s with supply from large-scale forests holding steady
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The majority of trees harvested for paper production are from sustainably grown plantations
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The population increase in New Zealand will not compete with land area used for the growth of trees.
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The increase in timber used for housing construction will not compete with the supply of woodchips for paper production
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Plantations are often grown in areas unusable in agriculture or prone to erosion
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The harvesting of trees is dependent on fossil fuels which are predicted to become scarce and eventually run out before 2070
In 2070 there will be a sufficient supply of trees from plantations to produce paper. The unsustainable use of fossil fuels will be the largest issue in the future for the supply of the wood chips to the paper industry.
Industry Dependence on Fossil Fuels
The entire process of the harvest of trees for the eventual conversion into woodchips is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, from the initial felling with petrol driven chainsaws to the turbo-diesel tractors and trucks used to cart the logs around.
According to the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (2015) at present rates of consumption the current supply of proven oil reserve left in the world’s major fields is sufficient to last 40 years. Even by 2040 they expect possible production to be down to 20% of what we currently consume. The entire forestry industry, not just the paper sector is in danger from the rising oil prices. Harvesting wood using current industry standards will not be possible in 2070. By 2070 an alternative non-renewable fossil fuels will have to be found.
